Meet the Oracle

The Oracle is the Starting 11 prediction engine. Before every match it covers, it names the eleven players it expects to start, hours before any team news. Its picks appear across Dugout's predicted lineups articles, and every prediction is scored against the real starting XI once the teams are announced.

How it works

The Oracle starts from what managers actually do: most starting lineups change less than fans expect, so the last XI a team fielded is the spine of the next one. On top of that it tracks injuries and suspensions from our data provider, availability flags, transfers and squad changes, and it removes anyone who cannot play. When news lands between its first call and kickoff, it revises the XI and says what changed. It never guesses at rumours and it never invents information: every pick traces back to something in the data.

A green marker on the pitch means a change from the team's last lineup. An amber marker means the Oracle has named a player who carries a doubt flag in the feed. Every post is read by a human editor before it goes out.

How accurate is it?

This is the live record: every prediction the Oracle has made since going live, scored against the real starting XI. It updates automatically as fixtures resolve.

77 scored predictions are excluded from this record. In July 2026 we found that our data provider had historically supplied some fixtures with the two teams' lineups swapped. Predictions built on that corrupted history measured bad data, not the model, so they are left out. The underlying lineups have since been repaired.

Where it is strong, and where it is guessing

The Oracle builds on the last XI a team actually named, so how recently that team played decides how much it has to work with. Splitting the same record by that measure is the honest version of the headline number above. A first match of a season is the hard case, and it is flagged as such before kickoff rather than explained away afterwards.

Settled: Built on an XI this team fielded within the last two weeks, which is where the Oracle is at its most accurate. Unsettled: The most recent XI we have is several weeks old, so expect more changes than usual. Cold start: There is no recent XI to build on, usually a new season or a first competitive match. This is the Oracle at its weakest and it says so on purpose.

The fixture list matters too

A side going again after three days tends to be rotated, and the Oracle carries the last XI forward, so those are its weaker calls. This table is only the settled-history calls above, split by how much rest each team had. Being straight about the overlap: most of the time the last XI we hold for a team IS its last match, so these two measures often move together. Rest still tells you something the table above does not, because it separates even when you compare teams whose last XI is exactly the same age.

Short rest: This side plays again less than four days after its last match, so expect more rotation than usual. These are the Oracle's least accurate calls outside a cold start. Quick turnaround: Fewer than five days since this side last played, so a few changes are more likely than not. Rested: A normal break since this side last played, which is where the Oracle is at its most accurate.

Worth saying plainly: knowing this does not let the Oracle fix it. A rule that benched tired players and brought in rested ones was built and measured against the real record in September 2026. It lost, and it lost at every setting tried, because a player who is a little more likely than usual to be rested is still far more likely to start than the substitute who would replace him. So this is published as a warning, not used as a correction.

Last 10 scored

Each call with the note the Oracle published before kickoff, who it ruled out and why, and what it scored once the real XI landed. Nothing here is written after the result.

• 11/11 DC United FC Cincinnati v DC United 22 Oct formation ✓ Settled

  Ruled out: C. Antley (out on loan), Gabriel Pirani (left the club), J. Murrell (left the club), J. Farr (out on loan)

• 8/11 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati v DC United 22 Oct Settled

  S. Gidi sidelined by injury. FC Cincinnati restores Bryan Josías Ramírez León in a 3-4-1-2 shape, with one arrival across the second revision.

  Ruled out: S. Gidi (Injury), G. Flores (out on loan)

• 6/11 Athletic Club Levante v Athletic Club 21 Oct formation ✓ Settled

  Athletic Club field an unchanged 4-2-3-1 shape away at Levante, carrying all 11 players.

  Ruled out: Urko Izeta (out on loan), Unai Gómez (left the club), A. Boiro (left the club), Lekue (out on loan)

• 5/11 Levante Levante v Athletic Club 21 Oct formation ✓ Settled Short rest

  Hugo Sotelo returns from knee injury as Levante host Athletic Club in a 4-3-3 shape. Manu Sánchez replaces Nacho Pérez from their prior alignment.

  Ruled out: Etta Eyong (Injury), Primo (Shoulder Injury), Hugo Sotelo (Knee Injury), Diego Pampín (left the club)

• 9/11 São Paulo Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo 8 Oct Settled

  Ruled out: Nicolas (Inactive), Domingos Duarte (Knee Injury), Lucas Moura (Achilles Tendon Injury), Aurélio Buta (Knee Injury)

• 6/11 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo 8 Oct formation ✓ Unsettled

  Ruled out: L. Romero (Calf Injury), Gabriel Pec (Broken Leg), L. Sinisterra (Muscle Injury), Fabrício Bruno (Inactive)

• 8/11 Botafogo Botafogo v Vasco DA Gama 8 Oct formation ✓ Unsettled

  Botafogo keep all 11 names from their previous lineup, staying in 4-2-3-1 formation against Vasco da Gama.

  Ruled out: Chris Ramos (left the club), Bartolomeu Jacinto Quissanga (out on loan), J. Correa (left the club), Newton (left the club)

• 10/11 Vasco da Gama Botafogo v Vasco DA Gama 8 Oct Unsettled

  Ruled out: Brenner (Knee Injury), A. Gómez (Yellow Cards), Hugo Moura (left the club), Matheus França (left the club)

• 9/11 Chapecoense Vitoria v Chapecoense-sc 8 Oct formation ✓ Unsettled

  Dudu unavailable after leaving the squad and Doma suspended for yellow card accumulation; Fernando and Everton return. Chapecoense line up in 4-2-3-1 shape with 9 players retained.

  Ruled out: Dudu (not in the current squad), Bruno Leonardo (left the club), João Vitor (left the club), Italo (left the club)

• 10/11 Vitória Vitoria v Chapecoense-sc 8 Oct formation ✓ Unsettled

  E. Martínez out through injury opens Zé Vitor into midfield. Vitória field a 4-2-3-1 with 10 of the XI carried over from their last outing.

  Ruled out: R. López (left the club), Claudinho (left the club), Gabriel Vasconcelos (out on loan), Aitor Cantalapiedra (left the club)

League football rotates more than tournament football, so expectations should shift with the competition. Before going live the Oracle was tested against the full second half of the 2025-26 season in seven leagues, scoring each prediction with the same 0 to 11 measure the Starting 11 leaderboard uses. Those baselines:

The spread is rotation culture: Dutch sides barely change, La Liga rotates hardest. For reference, fans predicting on Starting 11 during the World Cup have averaged just under 7 of 11.

What it cannot see

The Oracle misses what nobody can know from data alone: a surprise tactical shift, a manager's hunch, a knock that never reached the feed. When it is wrong, the score stays on the record. That is the deal: it publishes its accuracy openly, hits and misses alike.

Beat it

The Oracle sets the bar, not the ceiling. Fans who watch one team closely beat it on their club all the time. Predict your XI on Starting 11 and see how you score against it.