Meet the Oracle

The Oracle is the Starting 11 prediction engine. Before every match it covers, it names the eleven players it expects to start, hours before any team news. Its picks appear across Dugout's predicted lineups articles, and every prediction is scored against the real starting XI once the teams are announced.

How it works

The Oracle starts from what managers actually do: most starting lineups change less than fans expect, so the last XI a team fielded is the spine of the next one. On top of that it tracks injuries and suspensions from our data provider, availability flags, transfers and squad changes, and it removes anyone who cannot play. When news lands between its first call and kickoff, it revises the XI and says what changed. It never guesses at rumours and it never invents information: every pick traces back to something in the data.

A green marker on the pitch means a change from the team's last lineup. An amber marker means the Oracle has named a player who carries a doubt flag in the feed. Every post is read by a human editor before it goes out.

How accurate is it?

This is the live record: every prediction the Oracle has made since going live, scored against the real starting XI. It updates automatically as fixtures resolve.

77 scored predictions are excluded from this record. In July 2026 we found that our data provider had historically supplied some fixtures with the two teams' lineups swapped. Predictions built on that corrupted history measured bad data, not the model, so they are left out. The underlying lineups have since been repaired.

Where it is strong, and where it is guessing

The Oracle builds on the last XI a team actually named, so how recently that team played decides how much it has to work with. Splitting the same record by that measure is the honest version of the headline number above. A first match of a season is the hard case, and it is flagged as such before kickoff rather than explained away afterwards.

Settled: Built on an XI this team fielded within the last two weeks, which is where the Oracle is at its most accurate. Unsettled: The most recent XI we have is several weeks old, so expect more changes than usual. Cold start: There is no recent XI to build on, usually a new season or a first competitive match. This is the Oracle at its weakest and it says so on purpose.

Last 10 scored

Each call with the note the Oracle published before kickoff, who it ruled out and why, and what it scored once the real XI landed. Nothing here is written after the result.

• 6/11 Barcelona Elche v Barcelona 23 Aug formation ✓ Cold start

  R. Araújo, R. Lewandowski, M. Rashford and Ferran Torres have all left the club. Barcelona adopt a 4-2-3-1 shape with Toni Fernández replacing R. Bardghji since the last Oracle call.

  Ruled out: F. de Jong (Knee Injury), R. Bardghji (Knee Injury), R. Araújo (left the club), M. ter Stegen (left the club)

• 10/11 Elche Elche v Barcelona 23 Aug formation ✓ Settled

  Elche field an unchanged XI against Barcelona despite four positional swaps in the revision. All 11 remain in a 5-4-1 shape, with F. Redondo, Martim Neto, Ali Houary and Fer Niño replacing Bigas, Tete Morente, G. Diangana and Rafa Mir from the previous call.

  Ruled out: Iñaki Peña (left the club), L. Pétrot (out on loan), André Silva (out on loan), Rodrigo Mendoza (left the club)

• 5/11 Sassuolo Atalanta v Sassuolo 23 Aug formation ✓ Cold start

  I. Koné broken leg, D. Berardi and A. Pinamonti injured. Sassuolo field 4-3-3 with C. Volpato and L. Moro in for Berardi and Pinamonti, marking their third revision.

  Ruled out: I. Koné (Broken Leg), Y. Paz (Knee Injury), D. Berardi (Ankle Injury), D. Boloca (Muscle Injury)

• 3/11 Atalanta Atalanta v Sassuolo 23 Aug Cold start

  S. Kolašinac replaces G. Scalvini following a fresh change since the last Oracle call. Atalanta add four names to the frame at home, with knee and ankle injuries to K. Sulemana and G. Scalvini, plus muscle trouble for I. Hien, clearing space in a 3-4-2-1.

  Ruled out: K. Sulemana (Knee Injury), G. Scalvini (Ankle Injury), I. Hien (Muscle Injury), A. Navarro (not in the current squad)

• 4/11 AC Milan Torino v AC Milan 23 Aug Cold start

  S. Giménez ankle injury joins F. Tomori, Y. Fofana and C. Nkunku on the inactive list. AC Milan reshape to 3-5-2 with C. Pulišić and M. Valletta added against Torino.

  Ruled out: S. Giménez (Ankle Injury), Rafael Leão (Muscle Injury), F. Tomori (Inactive), Y. Fofana (Inactive)

• 6/11 Torino Torino v AC Milan 23 Aug Cold start

  Two arrivals reshape Torino's spine: C. Biraghi and M. Pellini in a 3-4-1-2 at home, replacing E. Ebosse and Rafael Obrador. Nine carry over.

  Ruled out: N. Nkounkou (left the club), E. Ebosse (left the club), V. Lazaro (out on loan), G. Maripán (left the club)

• 7/11 Paris Saint Germain Rennes v Paris Saint Germain 23 Aug formation ✓ Cold start

  B. Barcola is inactive. Paris Saint Germain keep faith with their 4-3-3 shape, with ten players carried over and D. Doué replacing Barcola from the previous Oracle call.

  Ruled out: I. Mbaye (Inactive), Nuno Mendes (Red Card), B. Barcola (Inactive), Gonçalo Ramos (left the club)

• 7/11 Rennes Rennes v Paris Saint Germain 23 Aug Cold start

  M. Camara is unavailable through yellow cards and M. Silistrie is out on loan. Rennes field a 4-1-4-1 shape with D. Cissé replacing M. Camara since the last Oracle call.

  Ruled out: M. Camara (Yellow Cards), G. Kamara (left the club), P. Frankowski (left the club), M. Silistrie (out on loan)

• 8/11 Beşiktaş Alanyaspor v Beşiktaş 23 Aug formation ✓ Settled

  Beşiktaş field an unchanged starting eleven away at Alanyaspor, retaining their 4-1-4-1 shape. Seven changes in the revision diff mark moves from a prior Oracle call, not the team selection here.

  Ruled out: D. Jurásek (left the club), T. Abraham (left the club), E. Touré (left the club), E. Destanoğlu (out on loan)

• 9/11 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor v Beşiktaş 23 Aug formation ✓ Settled

  Three positions shift from the prior Oracle prediction: M. Bayram, İ. Kaya, A. Usluoğlu in, replacing Mahmut Can Kara, E. Keskin, M. Elia. Alanyaspor add M. Bayram (was Paulo Victor out on loan) to their 3-4-3 side.

  Ruled out: Paulo Victor (out on loan), G. Yalçın (left the club), N. Janvier (out on loan), Y. Ozdemir (not in the current squad)

League football rotates more than tournament football, so expectations should shift with the competition. Before going live the Oracle was tested against the full second half of the 2025-26 season in seven leagues, scoring each prediction with the same 0 to 11 measure the Starting 11 leaderboard uses. Those baselines:

The spread is rotation culture: Dutch sides barely change, La Liga rotates hardest. For reference, fans predicting on Starting 11 during the World Cup have averaged just under 7 of 11.

What it cannot see

The Oracle misses what nobody can know from data alone: a surprise tactical shift, a manager's hunch, a knock that never reached the feed. When it is wrong, the score stays on the record. That is the deal: it publishes its accuracy openly, hits and misses alike.

Beat it

The Oracle sets the bar, not the ceiling. Fans who watch one team closely beat it on their club all the time. Predict your XI on Starting 11 and see how you score against it.